The new decade of e-commerce express delivery, will "joint vertical and horizontal" become the mainstream?

The rivers and lakes seem to be calm, but in fact the undercurrent is surging.

Moves seem to be irrelevant, but they are actually important.

Trend seems to be shadowy, but in fact it is magnificent.

2019, the wind started at the end of Qingping, e-commerce express industry, is experiencing a decade of unprecedented changes.

Ali took a stake in Shentong, only Yunda was left with "four links and one reach" without the surname of Ma. Still in the "logistics streaking" spell a lot, threw out the "new logistics" plan; Shunfeng is obsessed with e-commerce items, launched a special special match in the middle of the year, and bought Weipin Express. Suning Logistics, Guangjian Warehouse, Secret Network, Long Drive into County and Town, Deep Integration of Heaven, "to Warehouse to Store Home" Three Scenes Solution, gradually become the overall situation.

Express delivery industry actually depend on today's chess game.

2019, the general trend has become.

In the final analysis

Yunda is still in Ali's pot

"four links and one reach", Ali has already collected all the "four links.

Shentong Express, Ali is already the largest shareholder. In March 2019, Alibaba acquired a stake in Shentong Express 14.6% for 4.66 billion yuan. In August, it also acquired the shares of Shentong 31.35%, with an agreed purchase price of 9.982 billion RMB. In this way, Alibaba bought Shentong 45.59% shares at a total price of 14.642 billion. Chen Dejun and Chen Xiaoying's brothers and sisters cashed out and retired, which is also a good story.

Yuantong Express, Ali is the second largest shareholder. Ali Venture Capital Co., Ltd. holds shares in Yuantong 11.01%. Yuantong's third largest shareholder, Yunfeng Xinchuang Equity Investment Center, holds 5.32% shares. Yunfeng Fund was founded by Ma Yun and Yu Feng. Ma Yun holds 45% shares, and Yunfeng Fund has a very strong Ali blood.

Zhongtong Express, Alibaba is the third largest shareholder, with 7.3% shares and 2.2% voting rights.

Another "pass" is Baishi Huitong Express. Now BEST.NYSE, Ali is also the largest shareholder. Alibaba holds 26.8% shares and 46% voting rights, catching up with the voting 46.4% held by CEO Zhou Shaoning.

"Four links and one reach", only Yunda is left. For Yunda, Ali is also determined to win. But there is a big variable-more. Still in the "logistics streaking" spell more need rhyme.

Then, will pinduoduo take a stake in yunda? You can't even enter, which is very clear about pinduoduo.

Before Alibaba took a stake in Shentong, Pinduoduo had negotiated with Shentong for investment, "offering a higher price", but was still "cut off" by Alibaba ". The reason is very simple. Business flow determines logistics. Shentong's Taobao Tmall platform accounts for more than 50% of business volume and Duoduo accounts for about 20% of business volume. Who is the food and clothing parents, at a glance.

Yunda and Shentong are in a similar situation, although there is no specific figures to disclose, but Yunda's statement is that "Taobao parts account for a larger proportion of express business", and more consumers in Baidu know to send soul torture-"Why do I buy things on Taobao, 80% are all sent Yunda Express?" Ali in fact and Yunda in the business cooperation has come very close.

Based on its dependence on e-commerce, it is difficult for Yunda to reject Ali. After listing, Yunda, although the traditional franchise model makes it look conservative, it also has the quality of logistics services that Ali needs.

So, it is only a matter of time before Ali will take Yunda into his pocket.

And Tongda's competitive strength after listing is not what it used to be. It has established a certain moat in terms of cost, and is trying to compete for a part of SF's high-margin market.

Shunfeng's Sinking and "Little Rookie" Spend More

Shunfeng is high in the express delivery industry, has opened up a moat for business parts, and has pricing power, but this year it has clearly shown a "sinking" attitude.

In May 2019, Shunfeng successively launched special products, acquired the express delivery business of Vipshop, and once again entered the low-end express delivery market of e-commerce, competing with the "three links and one reach.

Shunfeng should have felt the strong pressure of Tongda, Zhongtong and Yunda both broke through the 15% market share, especially Zhongtong, which is listed in the United States, with a market share approaching 20% and a market value of more than 100 billion yuan.

Shunfeng's business volume grew 8.5% in the first half of the year, only 1/3 of the industry's average growth rate, and the core "aging" business grew by only 4%.

Shunfeng is slow.

Shunfeng's launch of e-commerce specials is also a precaution for JD.com. Jingdong Logistics has launched a large-scale market with a price of 4 and 5 yuan this year. If Shunfeng does not reduce the price, the cake will be divided by others. This is not simply a business volume at the expense of gross profit, but the only option after the monopoly is broken.

Shunfeng wants to maintain the brand awareness moat of fast delivery, safety and good service, the price of e-commerce parts will not be as low as "four links and one reach", but it is very possible to squeeze Jingdong.

Jingdong Logistics laid off staff and reduced salaries at the beginning of the year to reduce costs, it was also necessary to "cut" Liu Qiangdong's courier brother.

and many choices in logistics ".

Of "four links and one reach", Ali will unify the Jianghu. No matter how hard he works, he cannot have a closer relationship with any of them. What about other express delivery companies, such as home delivery? No matter the throughput scale, the coverage area, or even the service capacity, they are far from being able to support the parcel demand.

The space for investment and merger is limited. What if we build our own logistics? Large investment, slow effect, and even success or failure are all unknown. Self-built logistics has a lesson from the target. In 2010, Ali invested in Xingchen Express and positioned it as e-commerce logistics, but two years later, Xingchen Express declared bankruptcy.

Platform is not easy. Pinduoduo chose the third road: first, the electronic face sheet system was launched, and then the "new logistics" plan was officially announced.

"New Logistics" platform "will adopt an asset-light and open model and focus on providing solutions for businesses and users through technology".

Practices and logic are similar to Cainiao's. They do not send parcels, but parcels are delivered because of me, and intelligence and technology are used to improve the efficiency of parcel delivery.

The new logistics, which is like a rookie, does not see much difference.

Is that the express delivery company that delivered the package was a brother to Cainiao, and it was not the same as Pinduoduo. You should know that when Cainiao started, the express delivery companies were not willing to cooperate.

However, post office data show that in the first half of 2019, the order volume of Pinduo platform exceeded 7 billion orders, which is another piece of cake that is difficult to refuse with "four links and one reach.

Therefore, for a long period of time in the future, the "four links and one reach" will be very entangled in the fight. They should not stand in line on their feet and are greedy on their mouths. All the undecided figures depend on whether Ali will sacrifice the "two choices" of logistics.

Evolution of Suning Logistics

Many people think that Suning Logistics and Jingdong Logistics are the same species and are self-operated logistics driven by e-commerce platforms.

Is actually very different.

We cannot put aside the offline layout. Suning stores and small shops are all over urban communities, and Suning helps customers all over counties and towns all over the country. Suning Logistics's "side" advantage is not comparable to Jingdong;

We cannot ignore daily express delivery. Suning Logistics has been acquiring daily for more than three years, and integration, empowerment and transformation are gradually showing results. The two lines of distribution and low-cost advantage are not Jingdong's strengths.

The former is both a front warehouse and a distribution station, which makes the city e-commerce shopping have the instant feeling of receiving takeout and the rural e-commerce consumption experience with the city. This is undoubtedly the ultimate logistics experience of online shopping.

The latter, it not only expands Suning Logistics's express delivery network, but also supplements Suning Logistics's upward + downward service capability for small and medium-sized businesses throughout the network.

Among all the e-commerce logistics forces, Suning Logistics is the most complex, which has made it difficult to simply define self-built logistics or social logistics. It has become a random evolution, which does not depend on any other e-commerce platform. It can also become a key variable that determines the power pattern of express delivery on other e-commerce platforms.

But complex to complex, Suning logistics evolution, in fact, there are traces to follow.

The first is to continuously support Suning's full-scene retail layout, and the second is to open and share the logistics capabilities of scene retail. The logic behind it is: to do complete, dense and fine retail scenes, to meet the needs of users to the greatest extent, to occupy the minds, time and space of users, and to turn self-built logistics into a shared ecology of the industry.

As of September 30, Suning's full-scene retail has 8407 self-operated and affiliated stores, including the original Suning Tesco Store, Suning Store, Retail Cloud Store, Suning Red Child and Su Xiansheng., even the newly acquired Wanda Department Store and Carrefour, online includes Suning Tesco, Suning and other platforms.

if the above is the point of Suning's full-scene retail, then logistics is the line of full-scene retail, jointly weaving Suning's full-scene retail network.

For full-scene retail, Suning Logistics will be synchronized and even laid out in advance: in 2014, the 8+46 warehouse network will be built, the national terminal distribution network will be built, and the infrastructure phase layout will be completed; In 2017, Tiantian Express will be acquired, the transfer center and service network will be expanded, and the upward capacity will be enhanced. In 2018, 46 cold chain warehouses will be put into operation nationwide, and the ecological layout will be completed immediately.

A simple example, when Suning met users' fresh demand through online Suning Supermarket, Suning Fresh Food, Chinese Characteristic Pavilion, offline Su Xiansheng and Suning Store, Suning Logistics vigorously developed the cold chain. In just two or three years, Suning Logistics has rapidly built a nationwide fresh food service network and established a more multi-dimensional "fresh food processing center + front warehouse + instant distribution" mode.

This series of layouts looks dazzling and complicated, Suning Logistics insists on building its territory according to its own large logistics ecology, and its implementation is decisive and its speed is efficient.

In 2019, Suning Logistics has established seven product systems: warehouse distribution, express delivery, express delivery, cold chain, cross-border, instant distribution and after-sales service. Suning Logistics released three scenario solutions of "warehouse, store and home" for the first time, and signed strategic cooperation agreements with Yunmi, TCL, Skyworth, Xilinmen, Mary Kay, Rio and Anxianda, covers household appliances, household, department stores, fresh cold chain and other fields.

Suning's pace of logistics opening is accelerating.

Why can suning logistics mention "to the warehouse, to the store, to the home"? because suning economy's whole-scene retail layout strategy itself is "to the warehouse, to the store, to the home".

Suning Tesco Group, once said: "Among retail companies in China and even in the world, Suning gives everyone a very clear label of 'fickle. 'And this 'change' is a change that Suning is good at embracing trends."

Suning logistics is difficult to define, it is not because of "fickle", but also because of this "fickle", we can not find the model reference of Suning logistics.

Its own model, does not need to be controlled by others. Instead, it does not need to look at people's faces. Instead, it has more room for imagination.

Everything is possible.

In the e-commerce express market, the largest increment comes from Duoduo, and this increment will also bring the largest variable.